"Technical analysis is perhaps the oldest device designed to beat the market. It has secular history given that irs origins can be traced to the seminal articles published by Charles H. Dow in the Wall Street Journal between 1900 and 1902, and its basic concepts became popular after contributions by Hamilton (1922) and Rhea (1932). A complete jargon of words and pictures has been developed since then and many traders, nowadays, take their buying and selling decisions on the basis of technical analysis results appearing on their screen."
Cesari and Cremonini (2003)
[number in square brackets indicates number of Google results]
| 1925 | SCHULTZ, Henry, Forecasting Security Prices, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Volume 20, Issue 150 (Jun., 1925), 244-249. [2] |
| 1932 | KING, Willford I., Forecasting Methods Successfully Used Since 1928, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Volume 27, Issue 179 (Sep., 1932), 315-319. [2] |
| 1933 | COWLES, Alfred 3rd, Can Stock Market Forecasters Forecast?, Econometrica, Volume 1, Issue 3 (Jul., 1933), 309-324. [about 151] Cowles (1933) found that stock market forecasters cannot forecast. |
| 1934 | KING, Willford I., Technical Methods of Forecasting Stock Prices, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Volume 29, Issue 187 (Sep., 1934), 323-325. [2] |
| 1952 | GORDON, R. A., Wesley Mitchell and the Study of Business Cycles, Journal of Business of the University of Chicago, Volume 25, Issue 2 (Apr., 1952), 101-107. [3] |
| 1955 | ROOS, Charles F., Survey of Economic Forecasting Techniques: A Survey Article, Econometrica, Volume 23, Issue 4 (Oct., 1955), 363-395. [3] |
| 1959 | ROBERTS, Harry V., Stock-Market "Patterns" and Financial Analysis: Methodological Suggestions, Journal of Finance, Volume 14, Issue 1 (Mar., 1959), 1-10. [about 58] Roberts (1959) suggests that, "There is every reason to believe, however, that this methos of looking at the tape will facilitate all that takes place afterward." |
| 1963 | WEINTRAUB, Robert E., On Speculative Prices and Random Walks A Denial Journal of Finance, Volume 18, Issue 1 (Mar., 1963), 59-66. [about 8] |
| 1963 | ZARNOWITZ, Victor, On the Dating of Business Cycles, Journal of Business, Volume 36, Issue 2 (Apr., 1963), 179-199. [about 11] |
| 1964 | ALEXANDER, Sidney S., Price Movements in Speculative Markets: Trends or Random Walks, 1964. [about 101] Alexander (1964) concludes with, "The findings surveyed in this paper can be summarized by the statement that in speculative markets price changes appear to follow a random walk over time, but a move, once initiated, tends to persist. In particular, if the stock markets has moved up x per cent it is likely to move up more than x per cent further before it moves down by x per cent." |
| 1965 | ATKINSON, Sue N., Financial Flows in Recent Business Cycles, Journal of Finance, Volume 20, Issue 1 (Mar., 1965), 14-35. [3] |
| 1965 | FAMA, Eugene F., The Behavior of Stock-Market Prices, Journal of Business, Volume 38, Issue 1 (Jan., 1965), 34-105. [about 587] Fama (1965) concludes that, "chart reading, though perhaps an interesting pastime, is of no real value to the stock market investor." |
| 1966 | FAMA, Eugene F. and Marshall E. BLUME, Filter Rules and Stock-Market Trading, Journal of Business, Volume 39, Issue 1, Part2: Supplement on Security Pricing (Jan., 1966), 226-241. [about 155] |
| 1967 | LEVY, Robert A., Relative Strength as a Criterion for Investment Selection, Journal of Finance, Volume 22, Issue 4 (Dec., 1967), 595-610. [about 29] Levy (1967) concludes with, "Although it appears that superior profits can be achieved by investing in securities which historically have been relatively strong in price movement, the random walk hypothesis is not thereby refuted. To the extent that the superior profits are attributable to the incurrence of extraordinary risk, [...]" |
| 1968 | HOWREY, E. Philip, A Spectrum Analysis of the Long-Swing Hypothesis, International Economic Review, Volume 9, Issue 2 (Jun., 1968), 228-252. [about 7] |
| 1968 | JAMES, F. E., Jr., Monthly Moving Averages--An Effective Investment Tool?, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Volume 3, Issue 3, Special Issue: Random Walk Hypothesis (Sep., 1968), 315-326. [about 10] |
| 1969 | MELNIK, Arie and Alan KRAUS, Short-Run Interest Rate Cycles in the U.S.: 1954-1967, Journal of Financial Quantitative Analysis, Volume 4, Issue 3 (Sep., 1969), 291-299. [3] |